The NSW north coast can expect a wild start to winter with heavy rain, flooding, damaging winds and dangerous surf all possible early next week.
"Rain will commence across the state during the weekend as a deepening trough dips south from Queensland. The trough will then move off the coast on Monday and rapidly deepen into an East Coast Low," says Tom Saunders, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel.
"Early indications suggest the deepening East Coast Low will then hover near the New South Wales coast from Monday to Wednesday and cause heavy rain, strong to gale force winds and dangerous swell which should exceed five metres offshore," he continues.
"By the middle of next week much of the coast, including Sydney, is likely to see around 100mm of rain, partly from intermittent intense downpours. Flash flooding could be a concern, particularly in urban built up regions where drainage systems struggle to cope with short bursts of heavy rain," Mr Saunders said.
"East Coast Lows are responsible for some of the most severe weather NSW experiences including; the severe gales which brought the Pasher Bulker ashore in June 2007 and the August 1986 low which caused 328mm of rain to fall over Sydney in just 24 hours, causing complete chaos across the city.
"This type of weather is common for early winter. East Coast Low frequency reaches a peak during June when the cold air over south-eastern Australia contrasts with the still relatively warm Tasman Sea. As the Tasman Sea cools through July and August East Coast Lows become less frequent."