December Draw a Caulfield certainty

THEY say there are no certainties in racing, but Betfair's highly respected spring racing expert Dominic Beirne believes brilliant stayer December Draw could be as close to a Caulfield Cup certainty as it gets.

Betfair punters have shortened the Mark Kavanagh trained import from $4 to $3.55 following his breakthrough group one win in yesterday's Turnbull Stakes at Flemington.

"If December Draw sees out the 2400 metres, he's unbeatable in the Caulfield Cup," Beirne says. 

"His rating grew to a new level on Sunday. Stamina is all that can forbid him."

The Turnbull Stakes was December Draw's toughest victory since landing in Australia. In-running punters on Betfair thought bold frontrunner Glass Harmonium was poised to hold off the favourite inside the final 100 metres and took $2.12 about the Michael Moroney stayer in the run.   

Dominic Beirne believes Glass Harmonium was just one of several eye-catching runs.

"Glass Harmonium was brave in making play until the final 50 metres while Playing God was determined and honest, but as usual, was limited by a rating that is a couple lengths below Victorian weight-for-age class. If the Mackinnon does not contain Cox Plate back-up runners, he may get his chance there.

"Southern Speed was again honest but has only 50kgs in the Caulfield Cup which may be a problem getting into the field. If aimed elsewhere, she would be competitive in the Myer Classic, the race at which I would aim her.

"Efficient was noticed late in the race and he's not that far away from the figures he returned last preparation before winning the Australian Cup third-up."

Meanwhile, Streama's commanding victory in Saturday's Flight Stakes at Randwick has many punters wondering just how far this daughter of Stratum will go.

Dominic Beirne's ratings suggest she is set for a stellar racing career.

"The Flight Stakes returned the highest rating since 1998 when Sunline won spreadeagling her rivals.

"Streama could develop into weight-for-age quality."

CAULFIELD CUP MARKET MOVERS

  • December Draw               $4 to $3.55
  • At First Sight                       $10 to $8.60
  • Midas Touch                      $16 to $15
  • Alcopop                               $29 to $23
  • Glass Harmonium            $46 to $24           
  • Precedence                        $26 out to $36    

MELBOURNE CUP MARKET MOVERS

  • December Draw               $14 to $11 outright favourite
  • Midas Touch                      $21 to $19.50
  • Lucan Cranach                   $18 to $15.50
  • Americain                            $23 to $19
  • Shamrocker                        $35 to $29
  • Mourayan                           $120 to $32         

COX PLATE MARKET MOVERS

  • Jimmy Choux                     $7.50 to $6.20
  • Smart Missile                     $15 to $12 
  • My Kingdom of Fife        $24 to $16
  • Secret Admirer                 $50 to $21 
  • Rekindled Interest          $13 out to $22
  • Sincero                                 $14.50 out to $23

Dominic Beirne's detailed form analysis will be available each Friday in the Daily Examiner Friday Flutter column and at Betfair's exclusive tipping and opinion site - http://betting.betfair.com.au/



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