News

Don't write Donald Trump off just yet: bookies

Donald Trump... still getting plenty of wagers from punters
Donald Trump... still getting plenty of wagers from punters

It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it.

Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain's EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican.

That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

The bookie has cut the odds on a Trump victory from 11-2 to 4-1 over the past two days in response to a surge in bets for the reality TV star and businessman turned politician.

It comes despite a campaign bedevilled and derailed by ugly accusations of sexual abuse on the part of Trump from a growing list of women, together with his claims that the election is somehow being "rigged".

William Hill's spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said:

"It's very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can't win, but they can't vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage."

Mr Sharpe, the author of more than 25 books, mostly on the betting and racing industries, continued: "Some of the larger number of small bets on Trump can be explained by odds.

"When you have odds of 1-8 or 1-9 as you do on Clinton it's not so interesting to the small punter. You tend to get bigger bets. We had one woman walk into a Northumbrian betting shop to stake £170,000 at 1-8 to win £21,250.

"She came in the next morning to stake another £13,200 to win £1467. She'd never placed a bet before but said she saw it as an investment.

"Trump at 4-1 or 11-2 will attract the smaller punters. But I don't think that is only reason for the number of bets on him, and we have had to cut the odds on Trump three times in the last couple of days. This isn't over."

FiveThirtyEight in the US, which uses statistical analysis to produce a percentage chance of winning for each candidate, now rates Clinton at 88 per cent, based upon her widening lead in the polls, and at 85 per cent using its polls plus model.

Clinton's lead in national US polls, and in the battleground states that are the keys to victory, have firmed amid continuing revelations over Trump's past behaviour and his increasingly erratic public statements.

However, Fortune magazine noted that the Brexit vote showed "polls aren't as accurate as you think", even as many US media outlets were declaring that Clinton's lead of seven points and rising made her all but "unbeatable" with three weeks of campaigning to go.

William Hill's odds suggest otherwise. They put Trump's chance of winning at 20 per cent and rising. One reason to take note of that: William Hill doesn't have that many American clients.

The odds therefore reflect what people without any horse in the race think will happen. Punters may have latched on to the similarity of the forces behind Brexit and the rise of Trump.

They include years of flat or falling incomes, popular discontent with the establishments of both countries and a desire to make them pay.

SIGN UP HERE FOR FREE ACCESS TO THE WASHINGTON POST

John Mappin, the hotelier and part of the family that founded jeweller Mappin & Webb, stands to make £103,000 from the bookie should Trump win.

Mr Mappin, who owns Camelot Castle in Cornwall, has already made a substantial profit from backing him to take the Republican nomination at 20-1.

"I've only ever placed one bet - this one," he told The Independent. Explaining that his conviction was based on conversations with Americans and his experience working in the country, he continued: "I was on baby duty with my son when I watched Mr Trump announce his candidacy.

"I saw the media had got it wrong. They were saying the guy has no chance. They were saying he's doing this for a joke. That's not the case.

"His supporters, they've been watching media bullshit for years and they see through it. Polls are very rarely reliable. I am more confident than ever that Mr Trump will win. "

Those who view that prospect with horror can take some comfort from the fact that the odds say Trump is still a long shot to win the presidency. He's just a lot less of a long shot than you might have thought.

Topics:  editors picks us election 2016



Sex attacker slapped with strict supervision upon release

Violent sex offender's life after jail no walk in the park

Nationals will not stop Essential Energy job cuts

Essential Energy workers are facing forced redundancies within weeks, according to unions.

Nationals leader rules out blocking Essential Energy's 600 job cuts

Where there's a will, there's $75,000 for orphanage

A man has left a third of his $232,000 estate to the Grafton orphanage.

St Joseph's Cowper children's home receives $75,000 from will

Local Partners

Grandparents Day recognises the special roles they play

"AS the story tellers and the holders of knowledge of our culture, it's their role to pass that down to the children."


Bringing their Magic Mojo to Grafton

MAGIC: Head down to Roches Family Hotel for a brilliant mix of '70s, '80s and '90s music by Magic Mojo, a Coffs Coast band using their experience to give a brilliant performance.

Powerful trio to lift the top off Roches Hotel tonight

Catch Saturday night fever at the South Club

GEEZ WIZZ: Get your dancing shoes on for the UK Bee Geez Show.

The UK Bee Geez Show delivers a realistic tribute to pop legends

Audience in for a rare treat from husband and wife duo

Husband and wife Adam Eckersley and Brooke McClymont are playing at home this weekend for an intimate gig at the Pelican Playhouse.

"We love playing these up close and personal acoustic shows”

David Attenborough on facing his mortality

Sir David Attenborough in a scene from the TV special The Death of the Oceans.

Life without Sir David Attenborough is hard to imagine

Goooodbye Hamish and Andy (from our radios)

Hamish and Andy

The pair have been on air since 2006

Saying "I do" changed Shia's outlook on marriage

Shia LaBeouf has a new outlook on marriage since he tied the knot.

Singer tunes in to first movie role

Tori Kelly voices the character Meena in the movie Sing.

Musician Tori Kelly voices Meena the teenage elephant in Sing

Cricketing greats bring Aussie mateship to commentary box

Cricket commentator Adam Gilchrist.

ADAM Gilchrist enjoys the fun of calling the Big Bash League.

The dead help solve the case

Debut novel delivers on wit, violence and shock

Chinese locked out of Australian property market

The rules are different if you're a foreigner

The buyer was from China - the trouble started right there

Morrison signs off on new affordable rental model

Australia's Treasurer Scott Morrison speaks during a press conference after a meeting of the Council of Federal Financial Relations at Parliament House in Canberra, Friday, Dec. 2, 2016.

Scott Morrison signed off on development of a new financing model

Coast high-flyer's fight back from bankruptcy, $72m debt

Scott Juniper went from millionaire developer to declaring bankruptcy in2012, now he is back on top of his game again with new developments including this one in Coolum.

'Apocalyptic lending storm' causes financial collapse.

How your home can earn you big $$$$ this Christmas

This luxury Twin Waters home rents out over Christmas for more than $6000 a week.

Home owners earning thousands renting out their homes this Christmas

2000 jobs at multi-million dollar Ipswich project

INSIDE: Artist's impressions of the interior of the new Eastern Heights aged care precinct.

Sub-contractors needed to build $15m aged care facility

Ready to SELL your property?

Post Your Ad Here!