Treasurer Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley is under serious threat of swinging to LNP.
Treasurer Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley is under serious threat of swinging to LNP.

Federal election forecast shows big swing away from Labor

A RESPECTED political commentator says Labor faces the very real possibility of having no seats left in Queensland after the federal election.

A Galaxy poll of Queensland's federal seats showed the Coalition holding a commanding 59-41% two-party-preferred lead in the state - a swing of almost 4% against Labor since the 2010 election.

If such a swing were replicated in Queensland on September 14 Labor would lose four of its eight seats, including Treasurer Wayne Swan's seat of Lilley.

But Griffith University's Dr Paul Williams said no Labor-held seats in Queensland were safe.

He dismissed any hope of a Labor recovery in the state, arguing the vote was "locked in".

In fact he predicted Labor's primary vote of 28% in the Galaxy poll could go even lower.

"On paper ... Labor would lose four of its eight seats, but I think the swing's going to be quite erratic, and I wouldn't be surprised if Labor ends up with one or two, or maybe even none," Dr Williams told APN Newsdesk.

"Kevin Rudd is vulnerable because the LNP has got an excellent candidate. Seats like Moreton and Lilley are gone. (Craig) Emerson is in trouble."

Dr Williams said the mood for change in Queensland was palpable and would only intensify as the election grew closer.

He said a combination of issues accounted for Labor's rock-bottom poll numbers, including residual anger towards the Bligh government, Julia Gillard's knifing of Mr Rudd in 2010 and the carbon tax.

"And Queenslanders like the Abbott style more than most states ... that no-nonsense, masculine style," he said.

"The LNP's got everything going for it in Queensland and Labor's got basically nothing going for it in Queensland."

Dr Williams said Labor's fortunes would be far different had the party pulled the trigger on a switch to Mr Rudd last year, but said it was now "far too late" to reinstate the deposed leader.

He said even if Ms Gillard stood down, the member for Griffith would struggle to make up lost ground.

"Had he done that 12 months ago (successfully challenged), it would have not only turned it around in Queensland, it would have turned it around nationally," Dr Williams said.

Ms Gillard's competitiveness in preferred prime minister polling, which Dr Williams described as one of the "great oxymorons of Australian politics", was the Coalition's only cause for concern.

Dr Williams, a long-time observer of Queensland and national politics, said he could not recall a federal election with such a sense of inevitability.

"Rarely, if ever, has there been a federal result so inevitable. We do see the inevitability of state results much more frequently," he said.

"And rarely have we seen an incoming government with so little in terms of a platform. We accused John Howard of being small target in '96, but this is really quite a small target."




  • Moreton (Graham Perrett) - held by 1.13%
  • Petrie (Yvette D'Ath) - 2.51%
  • Lilley (Wayne Swan) - 3.18%
  • Capricornia (Kirsten Livermore ret.) 3.68%


  • Blair (Shayne Neumann) - 4.24%
  • Rankin (Craig Emerson) - 5.41%
  • Oxley (Bernie Ripoll) - 5.77%
  • Griffith (Kevin Rudd) - 8.46%

* Based on AEC figures. Labor lost the 2PP vote in Queensland 55.1-44.9% in 2010.

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