Months of heavy rainfall needed to reverse drought: BoM
EASTERN Australia could be in for a very dry summer and it will take several months of above average rainfall to affect the drought, according to the latest climate outlook from the Bureau of Meteorology.
Released yesterday, BoM predict November and December rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the country.
"The outlook for November 2019 to January 2020 suggests much of Australia is likely to be drier than average, whereas the summer (December to February) outlook suggests mainly eastern Australia may be drier than average."
Daytime temperatures are likely to be above average across Australia for the remainder of 2019 and into early 2020.
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for November in northwest and eastern Australia.
But BoM said much of northeast Australia are likely to have cooler than average November nights.
"Cooler nights for the southeast and northeast continue for December in some areas, but December to February nights overall are likely to be warmer than average almost nation-wide," the outlook states.
The strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is continuing to influence Australian climate, while a negative Southern Annular Mode (SAM) is likely to influence Australia for the coming weeks.
Rainfall will likely be drier than average, but may start to ease for some in early 2020.
"Rainfall is likely to be below average across most of the country for November.
"The drier outlook continues into December for most of Australia, although the chance of drier conditions is lower compared to November. The summer (December to February) outlook is far more neutral, although most of eastern Australia remains likely to be drier than average.
"While outlooks for drier than average conditions may ease for some areas in the coming months, it should be noted that several months of above average rainfall would be needed to see a recovery from current long-term rainfall deficiencies."
Daytime temperatures are likely to be warmer than average across Australia for the remainder of 2019 and early 2020," BoM said.
"For November to January, most of the Australian mainland has a greater than 80 per cent chance of warmer than average days."
Nights are likely to be warmer than average for November in northeast NSW.
"Cooler nights for the southeast and northeast continue in December for some areas, but December to February nights overall are forecast to be warmer than average almost nation-wide."