Punter’s $10k bet on Qld election
Annastacia Palaszczuk and the Labor Party are the clear favourites to return to government, with betting agencies narrowing their odds even further.
After being outsiders in early July at $2.10, Labor has been heavily supported by punters at $1.20 at TAB to win tomorrow's Queensland election.
Labor opened at $2 to win when TAB offered betting on February 25, before easing to $2.10 which was available until July 13.
TAB says the party has received almost 80 per cent of overall support, with one punter placing $10,000 at $1.28 on October 19 on Ms Palaszczuk and Labor to remain in power.
Labor stalwart Grace Grace could become the second casualty to the Greens alongside Jackie Trad tomorrow if the bookmakers are on the money, meaning Ms Palaszczuk could have to do a deal to form government.
The Labor Party's return to government could come at the cost of two key seats in inner-city Brisbane.
Ms Grace, who holds the seat of McConnel, could join Ms Trad, the one-time deputy premier and controversial South Brisbane MP, on the outer should the Greens prove the punters right and pick up the two seats.
Either the LNP or Labor need 47 seats to form a majority government. Labor holds 48, the LNP has 43, Katter's Australian Party has three, One Nation and Greens have one apiece, and Noosa is held by an independent.
Earlier this week Ladbrokes had Labor the favourite to win between 46 to 50 seats at $2.62, whereas the LNP's best odds were for winning 41 to 45 seats at $2.50.
Despite this, Tom Hackett from Ladbrokes said Wednesday morning Labor was only ahead in 43 seats, whereas the LNP was leading in 46, but that could all change.
However punts point at the possibility Ms Palaszczuk - who has been adamant about doing no deals with the minor parties - will have accept minority government.
Mr Hackett said there had been a "fair bit of interest" in bets on a hung parliament.
"There's pretty short odds at $3.50 (compared to $1.25 for no hung parliament). Generally those odds are a lot longer," Mr Hackett said Wednesday morning.
"In terms of majority or minority governments, there's $1.73 for a Labor majority, $4 for LNP majority and the same for Labor minority, and $4.50 for an LNP minority.
"It suggests that if the LNP do sneak across the line, it will be with a minority."
When the election was called, Mr Hackett said the odds were very tight, but the LNP were early narrow favourite, but since then the money has been pouring in for Labor.
Despite punters traditionally being on the money when it comes to picking the election, the 2016 US election and 2019 Australian federal election proved the betting market can get it wrong.
"Part of that is small sample size, and during the most recent federal election there was a media narrative that Labor would win," Mr Hackett said.
"But when you look deeper in individual seats, there wasn't as much between the two parties as the markets suggest."
It's set to be a similar story in Saturday's election, with the seat-by-seat breakdown suggesting how the election will really go.
"Some of the seats are very close and betting could swing … There's a few that could swing between the two parties," Mr Blackett said.
"The Greens are the favourite to retain Maiwar, but betting suggests they could win South Brisbane and Grace Grace's seat (McConnel) as well, that also plays into chances of minority government as well.
"In Burdekin, there is a split between the LNP and Katter, and Townsville is neck-in-neck between Labor and the LNP.
"Pumicestone could be the bellwether seat. They've got the same odds, however Labor has just shortened the lead."
Originally published as Punter's $10k bet on Qld election