Patrick Dangerfield should be the top Cat. Picture: Getty Images
Patrick Dangerfield should be the top Cat. Picture: Getty Images

Your club’s ultimate Brownlow Medal guide

GET ready for one of the tightest Brownlow Medal races in years. But that isn't the only thing up for grabs on Monday night.

Bragging rights are also on the line at all 18 clubs as we wait to see who the top pollers will be.

In some cases, the race is so one-sided, it's more interesting to look at who will come second.

While at other clubs, the battle to finish on top is so tight, there is nothing separating four players.

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There is a lot to work through but fear not, we've done all the heavy lifting for you.

In our Ultimate Brownlow Predictor, we've got every match for 2019 covered with votes and analysis as well as overall and club by club leaderboards.

Then scroll down for even more detailed insights on your team, including the key games that will decide each count and find out who is capable of causing an upset.

ADELAIDE

The bookies have framed this as a two horse race, with Brad and Matt Crouch sitting at the top of the betting. But there are a couple of red flags to consider before handing this over to the Crouch family. Across his 83 game career, Brad has just 13 Brownlow votes to his name. He played 17 games in Adelaide's run to the 2017 grand final and received just three votes. Matt's best tally in a single season is 11 but his high possession game can sometimes be all or nothing. Across his career he has six three vote games and just two one vote games. That doesn't leave a lot of margin for error. When it comes to looking for a value selection, Rory Sloane ticks all the boxes. Throughout 2016 and 2017, Sloane was third in combined Brownlow votes behind only Dustin Martin and Patrick Dangerfield. Adding weight to Sloane's 2019 case, he did his best work when the Crows were winning games. Between Round 1 and Round 15, he is in the mix to poll in 10 games. If he holds a big lead going into the final third of the season, look out.

Can Rory Sloane cause an upset at the Crows? Picture: Getty Images
Can Rory Sloane cause an upset at the Crows? Picture: Getty Images

BRISBANE

No one at the Lions is catching Lachie Neale. But the "favourite out" markets pit Dayne Zorko and Jarryd Lyons in a tight race for second spot.

If Lyons is to have a chance of causing an upset, it will come down to him securing maximum votes in these four games.

Round 11: v Hawthorn: 33 disposals

Round 17: v Port Adelaide: 36 disposals, one goal

Round 18: v North Melbourne: 30 disposals, two goals

Round 21: v Gold Coast: 34 disposals, two goals

Anything less than 12 votes across these games and it is advantage Zorko. Interestingly, Champion Data has Zorko in the mix to poll in 10 games compared to Lyons sitting at seven.

CARLTON

Patrick Cripps' dominance means all the action at the Blues is for second place.

This year it is a case of the old taking on the young with veteran Marc Murphy going head to head with Rising Star winner Sam Walsh. After a slow start to the year under Brendon Bolton, Murphy comes home like a steam train and is a chance to poll in four games between rounds 15 and 22. Walsh was a disposal winning machine in his first year and got all the midfield minutes he could handle. But will he be recognised by the umpires? The 2018 Rising Star winner Jaidyn Stephenson polled just two votes in his debut year, which included being overlooked in a game in which he kicked five goals. Recent Rising Star winners Andrew McGrath and Callum Mills didn't poll any votes in their debut years.

Good luck stopping Patrick Cripps. Picture: Michael Klein
Good luck stopping Patrick Cripps. Picture: Michael Klein

COLLINGWOOD

It is a race in three at the Magpies with a trio of different styles going head-to-head. Adam Treloar led the league in disposals, Brodie Grundy might be the most dominant player in the AFL and no one is smoother than Scott Pendlebury. It leaves punters with plenty to consider.

Adam Treloar

Biggest pro: Champion Data has Treloar a legitimate chance to poll in 16 matches. That is a massive number.

Biggest con: How much weight do the umpires place on disposal efficiency? Treloar is ranked sixth in the league for clangers.

Brodie Grundy

Biggest pro: Few players experienced more of a spike in polling from 2017 to 2018 than Grundy, who jumped from two votes to 17. Twelve months later he is averaging more disposals, hitouts and clearances.

Biggest con: While it is not as extreme as defenders, ruckmen aren't always rewarded for their dominance. Max Gawn was outpolled by Angus Brayshaw last year.

Scott Pendlebury

Biggest pro: The Collingwood skipper is a polling machine. He has not dropped under 15 Brownlow votes in a season since 2009.

Biggest con: While Champion Data rates him a chance to poll in 10 games, that is a long way behind Treloar's 16 and gives the younger Pie a lot more margin for error.

ESSENDON

It is near-on impossible to see anyone catching Zach Merrett, who was clearly the best and most consistent of the Bombers' midfield brigade. He is even a chance of sneaking into the top 10 come the end of the night. From there it comes down to a battle between Dylan Shiel and Dyson Heppell. And good luck splitting this duo. SuperFooty has Shiel and Heppell locked on seven votes each, while Champion Data has the two in a neck and neck race with only .5 of a vote separating them. That is about as tight as it gets. Good luck!

Zach Merrett had a super year for the Bombers. Picture Sarah Reed
Zach Merrett had a super year for the Bombers. Picture Sarah Reed

FREMANTLE

This is one of the most clear cut races for any club. Nat Fyfe has bigger fish to fry than his Docker teammates and will lap the field here. Second looks about as simple as it gets, with Michael Walters on track to top his previous career best of 10 votes. While Fyfe will take a lot of his three vote opportunities, Walters is a chance to poll at least two votes in upwards of six games.

GEELONG

Does Tim Kelly have a realistic chance of causing an upset over outright favourite Patrick Dangerfield? There will certainly be a few nervous moments for punters taking the short odds on Dangerfield, with Kelly on track to be leading the entire Brownlow at Round 15. However, he does fall away in the final third of the season. Adversely, that is when Dangerfield hits another level. In the final eight games of the year he is a chance to poll in seven of them. From Round 11 onwards he has six three vote chances.

GOLD COAST

As usual, the Gold Coast vote count is an absolute lottery. That is the trouble when a team without any star power doesn't win many games. And even when the Suns did win games in 2019, there were still high-profile opposition stars who could steal the three votes. For example, the wins against the Western Bulldogs and Carlton were dominated by Marcus Bontempelli and Patrick Cripps. That leaves basically no margin for error if you have a player locked in for three votes and they only hit one. Regardless, the SuperFooty predictor has landed on Brayden Fiorini. While he might not be the biggest name in the game, he did tie for top honours at the Suns last year which means he is on the umpires' radar. Now for the bad news. His three best performances came in losses. That is enough to make us nervous and explains why the bookmakers like David Swallow.

GWS

This might be the most wide-open team vote count in the league, with four legitimate chances vying for top honours. Throughout the first two thirds of the season, the battle between Stephen Coniglio and Josh Kelly will be intriguing. Champion Data gives Kelly a chance of polling in nine matches before injury struck in Round 16. Meanwhile, Coniglio could poll in upwards of eight. However, whatever leads they hold come the final stretch will need to be significant, with both men stuck on the sidelines for most of the final six weeks of the year. That opens the door for Jeremy Cameron, who is in line for maximum votes against Collingwood (six goals) and Gold Coast (nine goals). While all this is playing out, you need to keep an eye on Lachie Whitfield, who SuperFooty expects to poll 15 votes. Oh boy!

Stephen Coniglio was unstoppable before getting injured. Picture: AAP Images
Stephen Coniglio was unstoppable before getting injured. Picture: AAP Images

HAWTHORN

It is going to be a case of SuperFooty going head to head with the bookies here. Most of the odds makers have James Worpel the hot favourite for the Hawks. However, we have him a long way down the pecking order. Be mindful, sometimes it takes umpires time to fully recognise when a young gun has taken the next step.

So what are Worpel's games to look out for?

Round 2: 27 disposals, two goals

Round 17: 33 disposals in a win against Fremantle

Round 21: 31 disposals in a win against GWS

Round 22: 34 disposals and two goals against Gold Coast

But who is the real man to beat? Jaeger O'Meara polled well last year and both SuperFooty and Champion Data expect him to back it up again in 2019.

MELBOURNE

It was a dirty year for the Demons and as such, they aren't expected to feature too heavily come Brownlow night. The battle between Max Gawn and Clayton Oliver is set to be intriguing, with nothing separating the duo. Picking a winner could even come down to polling history. While Angus Brayshaw's shock finish in Melbourne's count made headlines last year, it's easy to forget Gawn did have a strong polling year. The All-Australian ruckman finished equal fourth with 20 votes. Meanwhile, Oliver was tipped as a top three chance but polled just 13 votes to finish outside the top 20. With that in mind, it's hard not to give the edge to Gawn.

NORTH MELBOURNE

It is going to be a frantic finish at the Roos, with Shaun Higgins charging home in an effort to topple Ben Cunnington. At the conclusion of Round 15, Cunnington should have a handy lead but his votes dry up from that point. It is around that time that the smooth moving Higgins returns from injury. Higgins should feature in the votes in four of the last six games and given his strong opening to the season, that should be enough to hand him the win. Interestingly, while SuperFooty gives a strong edge to Higgins, Champion Data has it coming down to a much tighter race in three between Cunnington, Higgins and Ben Brown. Brown kicked 63 goals in 2017 for 14 Brownlow votes. He kicked 61 goals in 2018 for six votes. How will his 64 goals this year be evaluated?

PORT ADELAIDE

Travis Boak's dominance will mean he is an easy winner at the Power, with the veteran midfielder a chance to break the 20-vote barrier for just the second time in his career. However, it is the race for second where all the action will be. The prolific Tom Rockliff will go head-to-head with the highly impactful Robbie Gray in a battle of contrasting styles. Like the overall fortunes of his club, Rockliff's start to the season was much more impressive than his finish, with the midfielder a chance to poll in six of the first nine rounds. That is in stark contrast to Gray, who won't get his first votes until Round 11. Best on ground performances in Round 14 and Round 16 as well as more votes in Round 20 will certainly cut the margin. But it might be too late.

Travis Boak was at his ball winning best in 2019. Picture: Sarah Reed
Travis Boak was at his ball winning best in 2019. Picture: Sarah Reed

RICHMOND

Another year, another night of listening to D Martin - three votes.

After a slightly slow start to the year, Dusty comes home in a blaze of glory, and is a huge chance to poll three votes in five of the last nine games. However, if for any reason Martin isn't rewarded with maximum votes, look for Dion Prestia to capitalise. Prestia finished the year on an absolute tear, with Champion Data rating him a polling chance in seven of the last eight games. At Round 16 he may be sitting behind Bachar Houli but that upcoming level of consistency should be enough to see him overtake the rebounding defender. History is also on Prestia's side. The midfielder has 31 Brownlow votes to his name while Houli has polled just 12 from an extra 50 games.

ST KILDA

Jack Steven's interrupted 2019 means a new Saint will take top honours this year. Enter Jack Billings, whose fate rests on his ability to cash in on a three-week purple patch early in the season.

Round 3: 32 disposals, three goals

Round 4: 34 disposals (Seb Ross likely to poll three)

Round 5: 28 disposals, two goals.

If Billings walks away from this with six or seven votes, he is going to be very tough to beat. Any less than that and it opens the door for Ross to potentially swoop.

Jack Billings took his game to a new level in 2019. Picture: Getty Images
Jack Billings took his game to a new level in 2019. Picture: Getty Images

SYDNEY

For a club that likes to keep things simple, Sydney's vote count seems exactly that this year. Luke Parker is the man to beat after coming alive in Round 8. From that point on, he is a chance to poll in nine games, which is clearly the most of any Swan. The only curveball centres around Josh Kennedy and how big his early lead is. Kennedy's likely tally at Round 7 should be around five votes but if it is any more than that, Parker backers may have to deal with some nervous moments. Amazingly it could all come down to the final game of the year, with Kennedy having 32 disposals and kicking two goals and Parker having 28 disposals and also kicking two goals.

WEST COAST

Picking a winner here is tough, with four legitimate chances in the mix. While SuperFooty has given the edge to Andrew Gaff, it will be interesting to see how he polls in the wake of last year's suspension. If you think the umpires might look elsewhere when it comes to their votes, you have to essentially throw a blanket over Luke Shuey, Elliot Yeo and Dom Sheed. If this feels like deja vu with the Eagles, there is good reason for that. The Eagles were tipped to have a tight count last year and it proved exactly that, with Gaff winning by one vote to Yeo. In terms of career Brownlow love from the umpires, the advantage is definitely with Andrew Gaff, who has a career high of 21 votes. None of the other trio have ever polled more than 15 votes.

How will Andrew Gaff poll in 2019? Getty Images
How will Andrew Gaff poll in 2019? Getty Images

WESTERN BULLDOGS

Many are predicting Marcus Bontempelli to win this year's Brownlow. However, they may need to pump the breaks according to Champion Data. The number crunchers have given the edge at the Dogs to Jack Macrae, who was one of the most consistently prolific midfielders in the league this year. But highlighting just how tough this one is, the SuperFooty model has the Bont coming out on top by four votes. So where will it be decided? This is set to be one of the most intriguing battles of the night. Both Bontempelli and Macrae are rated chances of polling in the same game nine times. That is a huge number. With crossover like that, it is important to look at polling history. Bontempelli has a career high of 20 and also polled 19 votes in 2017. Macrae has a career high of 14 votes which came in 2018.

News Corp Australia


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